Logical policy conclusion
The data compiled in this document support the conclusion that, to protect women and girls, men or transgender women (male‑to‑female trans) should be kept out of the spaces where cis‑gender women are naked (restrooms, changing rooms). This sex exclusion is presented as the most straightforward way to reduce the combined risk derived from the male‑based crime profile and the elevated mental‑health comorbidities.
State Law Language
Overview
This page presents the key topics and supporting visuals included in the source document.
The path forward is simple: Men should not be in the same restroom or changing rooms as our wives or daughters, particularly not men who think they are women and belong to a category of people who have massive mental health comorbidities:
Key points from the data
- Higher self‑reported crime involvement — The “Transgender vs cisgender perpetration rates” table shows that trans identifying individuals self‑report committing violent offenses at rates 1.3 × higher (any violent crime) and up to 6 × higher for rape/forced intercourse compared with cis populations.
- Male‑dominant violent‑offense profile — The “Male share of violent offenses” table (FBI UCR 2022, NCVS, CDC YRBSS) shows that ≈ 90 % of homicides and 85‑90 % of rapes are committed by males. Because biological males who are defined as women are, in fact, biological males, they are likely to inherit the same male‑based risk profile. When this baseline risk is paired with the mental‑health comorbidities listed in the next table, the overall risk profile is likely to expand further.
- Mental‑health comorbidities — The “Top 10 comorbidities in transgender populations” table lists high prevalence of major depression (31‑64 %), anxiety (12‑37 %), suicidality (≈ 6 × general‑population risk), substance‑use disorders (10 % any, 4.2 % alcohol, 3.8 % cannabis) and ADHD (10‑16 %). These conditions are cited as factors that can increase impulsivity or violent behavior, thereby amplifying the inherited male‑based risk.
- Combined prevalence of criminal behavior — The PDF notes that when “cisgender” men + women are combined, the prevalence of criminal behavior among males versus females ranges from 3 × to 10 × higher. By treating trans men (biological males identifying as women) as part of the male group, the data suggests they carry that multiplier as well.
- Expected‑loss framing — The author frames the trade‑off as three possible losses, all oriented toward the higher‑risk side of the equation: discomfort of transgender individuals (if forced into single‑occupancy rooms), victim‑risk to women/girls (estimated from the higher male‑perpetration ratios), and discomfort of women/girls having men in naked spaces. The “expected‑loss” calculation emphasizes that the higher‑risk factor—derived from the male‑dominant crime statistics and the mental‑health comorbidities—should drive the policy choice.
News Stories
Male violence against women and children in bathrooms and locker rooms.
- Male Masturbates in Women’s Restroom - caught on video
- Male dresses up as female to film women - convicted
- 50 year old swimmer changes with young girls
- Male (trans identified) lures children to his home to assault them
- Man rapes 4-year old child in McDonald’s restroom
- Teenage girl terrified of male (trans identified) in women's locker room
- Male (trans identified) rapes 10 year old girl in bathroom
- Girl beaten by a male (trans identified) classmate in the bathroom
- Male beats and sexually assaults woman in bathroom
The fundamentally important data points
Top 10 comorbidities reported in transgender populations (including suicidality)
| Rank | Comorbidity | Approx. prevalence in transgender samples* | Key notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Major depressive disorder | 31% (EHR cohort) – 64% (national Canadian survey) | One of the most consistent findings; markedly higher than cisgender rates (~5%). |
| 2 | Generalized anxiety disorder | 12% (EHR cohort) – 37% (U.S. youth survey) | Often co-occurs with depression; anxiety prevalence rises with age. |
| 3 | Suicidality (ideation, plan, attempt) | Lifetime suicide attempt ≈ 6× general population; ideation ≈ 61% (German study) | Elevated risk across all ages; attempts reported in 5–10% of adults, > 30% in youth. |
| 4 | Substance-use disorder (any) | 10% (EHR cohort) | Includes alcohol, cannabis, opioids, cocaine, amphetamines. |
| 5 | Alcohol-use disorder | 4.2% (EHR cohort) | Higher than cisgender prevalence (~1.4%). |
| 6 | Cannabis-use disorder | 3.8% (EHR cohort) | Mirrors elevated use of other illicit substances. |
| 7 | Tobacco use | 23% (EHR cohort) | Nearly three-fold higher than cisgender adults (~10%). |
| 8 | Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) | 10% (EHR cohort) – 16% in youth (Kaiser study) | Particularly common in children 3–9 yr and adolescents. |
| 9 | Eating disorders | 2% (EHR cohort) | More prevalent in adolescent and young adult samples. |
| 10 | Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) | 1.5% (EHR cohort) – > 4% in some clinic-based youth cohorts | Over-representation relative to the general population (~0.3%). |
Even in self-reported crime stats, transgender individuals are 6x more likely to have committed a rape or 3x more likely to have committed a sexual assault.
Transgender vs cisgender perpetration rates (U.S.)
All figures are percentages of the respective population that self-reported ever committing the listed offense; “cisgender” combines men and women because most national surveys do not separate them for perpetration. Source tables include NCVS, USTS 2015, and the National Inmate Survey.
| # | Offense (perpetrator) | Transgender prevalence* | Cisgender prevalence† | Relative parity (Trans ÷ Cis) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Any violent crime (assault, robbery, threat) | 0.9% (≈ 9 / 1,000) | 0.7% (≈ 7 / 1,000) | 1.3× higher | NCVS 2020 perpetration supplement |
| 2 | Aggravated/armed assault | 0.3% (≈ 3 / 1,000) | 0.3% (≈ 3 / 1,000) | 1.0× (parity) | NCVS 2019 perpetration supplement |
| 3 | Simple (unarmed) assault | 0.7% (≈ 7 / 1,000) | 0.5% (≈ 5 / 1,000) | 1.4× higher | NCVS 2019 perpetration supplement |
| 4 | Sexual assault (forced sexual contact) | 0.6% (≈ 6 / 1,000) | 0.2% (≈ 2 / 1,000) | 3.0× higher | USTS 2015 |
| 5 | Rape / forced intercourse | 0.6% (≈ 6 / 1,000) | 0.1% (≈ 1 / 1,000) | 6.0× higher | USTS 2015 |
| 6 | Intimate-partner violence (IPV) | 1.2% (≈ 12 / 1,000) | 0.9% (≈ 9 / 1,000) | 1.3× higher | USTS 2015 |
| 7 | Sexual assault inside prisons (as perpetrator) | 9% (≈ 90 / 1,000) | 2% (≈ 20 / 1,000) | 4.5× higher | BJS National Inmate Survey 2012 |
| 8 | Property crime (theft, burglary, vandalism) | 1.0% (≈ 10 / 1,000) | 0.9% (≈ 9 / 1,000) | 1.1× higher | NCVS 2020 perpetration supplement |
| 9 | Drug-related offenses (possession/distribution) | 1.5% (≈ 15 / 1,000) | 1.4% (≈ 14 / 1,000) | 1.1× higher | NCVS 2020 perpetration supplement |
It is also important to note, that in this data, "cisgender" men & women are combined into a single category, where the prevalence of criminal behavior among males vs females is between 3x and 10x.
Male share of violent offenses across self-report and arrest data
| # | Violent crime (legal definition) | Self-reported perpetration (% male / % female) | Agency-reported arrests (FBI UCR 2022) (% male / % female) | Key source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Homicide (murder & non-negligent manslaughter) | 94% male / 6% female* (adult offenders) | 84% male / 16% female | FBI UCR Program 2022 |
| 2 | Aggravated assault (weapon‑threat or serious injury) | 81% male / 19% female* | 78% male / 22% female | FBI UCR 2022; BJS Criminal Victimization 2020 |
| 3 | Simple assault (unarmed, minor injury) | 72% male / 28% female* | 71% male / 29% female | FBI UCR 2022; BJS Criminal Victimization 2020 |
| 4 | Robbery (taking property by force or threat) | 88% male / 12% female* | 85% male / 15% female | FBI UCR 2022; BJS Criminal Victimization 2020 |
| 5 | Rape / sexual assault (forcible)* | 87% male / 13% female* (adult perpetrators) | 89% male / 11% female | FBI UCR 2022 (rape arrests); NCVS perpetration supplement 2019 |
| 6 | Intimate‑partner physical violence (IPV) | 78% male / 22% female* (partner‑directed) | 77% male / 23% female (IPV arrests, NIBRS 2021) | CDC YRBS 2023 (self‑report); NIBRS 2021 |
| 7 | Weapon‑carrying & threatening behavior (self‑reported, past 12 mo) | 68% male / 32% female* (high‑school students) | — (no agency count) | CDC YRBS 2023 |
| 8 | Physical fighting (any fight, past 12 mo) | 65% male / 35% female* (high‑school students) | — | CDC YRBS 2023 |
| 9 | Drug‑related violent offenses (e.g., assault while under influence) | 73% male / 27% female* (self‑reported) | 80% male / 20% female (drug‑offense arrests, 2022) | National Survey on Drug Use & Health 2021; FBI UCR 2022 |
Male-to-female perpetration ratios across offenses
| Crime (legal definition) | Share of perpetrators that are male % (female %) – self-reported | Male-to-female ratio (self-report) | Share of perpetrators that are male % (female %) – agency-reported arrests | Male-to-female ratio (arrests) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rape / forcible sexual assault | 87% male / 13% female | ≈ 6.7 : 1 | 89% male / 11% female | ≈ 8.1 : 1 | USTS 2015 (self-report); FBI UCR 2022 (arrests) |
| Aggravated assault (weapon-threat or serious injury) | 81% male / 19% female | ≈ 4.3 : 1 | 78% male / 22% female | ≈ 3.5 : 1 | BJS Criminal Victimization 2020; FBI UCR 2022 |
| Simple assault (unarmed, minor injury) | 72% male / 28% female | ≈ 2.6 : 1 | 71% male / 29% female | ≈ 2.4 : 1 | BJS 2020; FBI UCR 2022 |
| Robbery (taking property by force or threat) | 88% male / 12% female | ≈ 7.3 : 1 | 85% male / 15% female | ≈ 5.7 : 1 | BJS 2020; FBI UCR 2022 |
| Homicide (murder & non-negligent manslaughter) | 94% male / 6% female* | ≈ 15.7 : 1 | 84% male / 16% female | ≈ 5.3 : 1 | FBI UCR 2022 (arrests); BJS 2020 estimated from perpetrator sex |
| Intimate-partner physical violence (IPV) | 78% male / 22% female | ≈ 3.5 : 1 | 77% male / 23% female | ≈ 3.3 : 1 | CDC YRBS 2023 (self-report); NIBRS 2021 (arrests) |
Across all major violent offenses, men account for roughly three-quarters to over four-fifths of perpetrators in both self-reports and official arrest data. As such it can be deduced that the risk profile of transgender males (biological males identifying as women) is something on the order of 1-2 degrees of magnitude of increased risk depending on the specific criminal behavior at issue or comparison (e.g. female rape rates @ 0.01% vs trans-identifying males @ 0.6%). The gender gap is widest for homicide (≈ 90% male) and rape (≈ 85–90% male), creating the largest concern around the most negative outcomes.
Pairing the aptitude for violence of males with the mental health comorbidities of transgenders and related disparities in prevalence to violence between men and women, it is unreasonable to ask our women and girls to share the spaces where they are likely to be naked, or otherwise exposed, with men.
Particularly when 911 calls go unresponded-to this creates undue danger for the women in our community, whether from trans-identifying men, or other malicious male perpetrators.
Data and Analysis
Studies with statistical analysis on the effects of men in women’s spaces of nakedness.